One Sale Is Not a Market: Reading Grade Medians in Our October 2026 Comps

The Numbers Behind Every Item Page

Up to six sales per item sounds like a lot until they split across grades. The median item spreads its sales across four grade buckets, so most buckets are one sale wide. A one-sale "median" is just that sale, and it carries no information about whether the price was normal.

What a Market Looks Like

Start with the rare case where one grade carries the whole sample. Every sale below is the same book in the same grade, sold within two days.

When the Trim Does the Work

Even six sales in one grade can disagree. When a grade has four or more sales, the site sets aside any sale below a third of that grade's median or above three times it before computing the number you see.

When One Sale Would Have Headlined

Sort an item's grades by median and take the top one, and a single sale often wins. Since October 16 the headline figure on homepage cards, research hubs and value rankings is the highest median backed by at least two sales instead. These three cards show why.

None of this says those single sales were fake. Top grades of vintage holos can genuinely sell for many times a mid grade. The point is narrower: one sale cannot tell you whether it was a real high-grade copy, a misread price, a lot or a listing that never paid. Two sales in the same grade at least show the price happened twice. Two is still a floor, not a verdict: Flareon's PSA 9 headline of $986 is the midpoint of a $240 sale and a $1,732 sale, so treat the middle with care.

The Ten Widest Gaps in the Catalog

Items where the single highest sale sits furthest above the two-sale headline, sorted by that gap. Each single sale is shown with the date it closed.

When No Grade Has Two Sales

For 83 items, every grade is a single sale. The site then sets aside any sale more than ten times the item's typical grade median and headlines the most-traded remaining grade, taking the higher median on a tie. That is a fallback, not a market.

How to Read a Grade Median Yourself

• Check the count first. The grade table on every item page shows how many sales sit behind each median. One sale is an anecdote. Two is a start. Four or more lets the trim rule remove the odd one out.
• Check the dates. Each item keeps at most its six most recent graded sales, and most of this sample sold in September. A median from sales weeks apart says less about today than one from the same few days.
• Look at the spread, not just the middle. A tight range means buyers agreed. A wide range inside one grade means the copies, the listings or the matching may differ.
• Compare neighboring grades. If a lower grade outsells a higher one, or one grade sits far above its neighbors on a single sale, treat both numbers with suspicion.
• Read the receipts. Comp matching runs on listing titles and is not perfect. Each receipt shows when a sale closed and for how much; an odd price in a thin grade is a reason for caution, not a new market level.